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Federal Reserve is Getting Nervous

Posted by Steve Markowitz on January 27, 2016

President Barack Obama often touts his administration’s achievements relating to the economy. Often the President uses the decreasing unemployment figure and the strength of the equities’ markets as proof statements.  Both are red herrings.

The unemployment figures are ginned-up by the government to back a chosen narrative.  In recent years of this rate has been reduced mainly by Americans dropping out of the workforce and therefore not counted as unemployed.  In addition, Americans have been forced to take less than full-time work.

As stock prices have shown in recent weeks, what goes up will come down.  The Dow Jones Industrial Average is down this year by 1,800 points or approximately 10%.  This significant drop has occurred even though the Federal Reserve has maintained historically low interest rates for nearly 8 years.

The Federal Reserve today released a statement indicating that it too was concerned with the direction of the economy.  In a statement released today, the Fed said: “The [Fed] is closely monitoring global economic and financial developments and is assessing their implications for the labor market and inflation, and for the balance of risks to the outlook.”  This typical Fed gibberish that in simple English means the economy is shaky.

The Federal Reserve’s near zero interest rate policies created an economy that is out of balance.  Cheap interest rates have not fueled real economic growth, but instead created financial bubbles, as exemplified by equity valuations.  This has placed the Fed in a quandary.  If the economy weakens, the Federal Reserve will either have to allow the forces of supply and demand to correct the imbalances; i.e. a significant recession, or use even more radical easy money policies to keep the party going.  Realistically, the only ammo left in the Fed’s arsenal is negative interest rates.  The implications of banks requiring payments from depositors for savings deposits are hard to imagine.

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